The 3rd installment of my analysis on how the Worker's Party (WP) can win the Aljunied GRC from the hands of the People's Action Party (PAP) will focus on the possible line-up from the ruling party in the coming election.
With all due respect to the MPs of Aljunied GRC, there is only but 1 crowd-puller - BG (NS) George Yeo, the Minister for Foreign Affairs! What can the likely-to-be contesting WP put up as candidates? Nothing much actually, IMHO. However, there is a greater regard of sentiments towards credible opposition candidates. This is where the WP should aim for, otherwise they will be marginised (as usual) again.
Let's look at the candidates on offer. The incumbents are:
(1) Ong Seh Hong (Dr), [Buddhism] [Link]
- Chief Operating Officer, Ren Ci Hospital & Medicare Centre
Might command a good degree of respect among th voters.
(2) Phua Cynthia, [Catholic] [Link]
- Assistant General Manager, NTUC Fairprice Co-operative Ltd
- PAP Long Service award
Here for the long term? I doubt so.
(3) Yeo Guat Kwang [Buddhism] [Link]
- Director, NTUC
Able to command respect among the voters even though he is a Director of the Union? I have my serious doubts.
(4) George Yong-Boon Yeo [Catholic] [Link]
- Minister of Foreign Affairs
The crowd-puller of the team, with or without his boss aids.
(5) Zainul Abidin Rasheed [Islam] [Link]
- Minister of State, Foreign Affairs
- Mayor, North-East CDC
Is he charismatic? Ask the ex-Cheng Shan GRC voters. Even with the attacks on TLH, the vote was close. Which direction did the Malays voted? Only God knows.
The question in mind - Who will be replaced in the coming elections? If I am not wrong, if I remembered what I read before correctly, there are many potential Malay female candidates short-listed by the ruling party. Sounds like a change of guard for Zainul (an old man of 58 in 2006) as part of renewal. With a new Malay female candidate, it's a whole new ball game - a definite refreshing change and should be a popular move among the younger Malays. This could be the winning move as well.
2 females in the same GRC team? I don't think so. Sometimes the ruling party attitudes about everything-must-go-by-the-books make the party predictable. Hence, another change for Cynthia (another 1-term candidate like Dr Toh?).
Yeo GK is deemed to be the man from the labour union - a must in any contest against the WP (which historical ground support came from the union). Therefore, expect him to remain.
Dr Ong SH, IMHO, coming from a popular and respected charitable organisation (unlike some which are infamous and are arrogant), has no reason to be bypassed by his own party leaders. Therefore, I guess he is staying put. Also, there shouldn't be too much changes in people in GRC in any election.
Therefore, expect the lineup for the PAP for Aljunied GRC as:
(a) DR ONG SEH HONG
(b) {new Indian/Chinese male candidate}
(c) MR YEO GUAT HWANG
(d) BG YEO YONG-BOON, GEORGE
(e) {new Malay female candidate, maybe a potential Minister-of-State}
The next blog shall look into the kind of candidates that I think the WP should field to counter each and every contesting member from the PAP.
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6 comments:
Dear K.S.,
If PAP really change their members as you have stated, then I will be very happy! ;)
Good strategists do not recommend change of main key players when they anticipate great final warfare in the near future. Most of the time, battles were lost due to the last minute changes made in leadership.
The change of leadership is a vital element of instability and uncertainty. From the macro as well as the micro view.
I will be a very happy man if they really think by changing the composition of MPs in Aljunied GRC will help them in any ways!
Unless you are talking about putting SM Goh CT, MM Lee KY or even PM Lee in Aljunied GRC, else any other changes made would be devastating to PAP in many sense. Please remember that's how Anson was lost and how Potong Pasir was lost. And most importantly, how the change of PM back in early 90s initiated a lost of total 4 seats to opposition by the decision of having snap early election when the new PM has not gained enough weight on the political front.
Goh Meng Seng
GMS:
But the anchor (BG Yeo) is still there wat.
Is Zainul Abidin Rasheed very popular with the Malay residents in Aljunied GRC?
I personally dun feel that Phua Cynthia is a crowd puller although she is from NTUC.
Dear at82,
BG Yeo is of course a bigshot just like any other heavy weight ministers PAP has. Look at it this way, no matter where or which GRC you go, there will be big shot ministers there, right? Thus, fighting a big shot Minister is inevitable if you want to win one GRC.
Some GRC has TWO ministers or One minister with another minister of state. Thus, frankly speaking, Aljunied GRC is considered as an "OK" GRC.
Zianul seems to be popular with the Malay community. I think it is a matter of personality.
As for Cynthia Phua, she is the "grassroot MP" promoted by PAP, remember?
Dear anon:
Yes I argee that winning a GRC would having to fight with a big-shot minister.
However my sense is that some Ministers are not very popular. The minister in Hong Kah Grc would probably be one of them for obvious reasons.
Dear Mr Goh,
I disagree. The key player is still there - the anchor of the team will still be there.
War and battle are 2 different events. In war, you strategise the overall campaign in which many battles will be fought. That is, if you send key division (consisting of many battalions) to a battle elsewhere, expect that division to stay there till that battle is over before recalling them. You don't change key division midway! But you can move some battalions around!
Only in the battle, then you talk about changing tactics constantly and quickly, reacting to any spy news about your enemy.
Likewise, the battleline for the GRC/SMC has been drawn, or will be drawn soon in the near future. Once you commited some key players to some GRC, expect them to be there to do their groundwork, to familiarise with the support base, etc. You don't shift key players around. The support base will rally around him/her!
If you can't move the general of the contigent, you can move the lieutenants! That's why I thought that the ruling party might change 2 lieutenants. The word is MIGHT!
What is mobile is the tactics that both of you are going to use during the elections campaign. This is where the battle wil be fought!
i am very intrigued as to why there is this assumption that aljunied GRC is going to stay the same as 2001.
if i were the PAP, and i saw you people discussing earnestly and speculating about WP going to aljunied, i will tear aljunied apart. and it's not that difficult to do so, and there are a few wildcards which permit the redrawing of boundaries without looking too ridiculous:
(a) Punggol and Sengkang are much bigger than in 2001. In fact if we refer to the Election Division's updated polling districts, Pasir Ris-Punggol is now the most bloated constituency in terms of MP-voter ratio.
(b) Serangoon Gardens and Braddell Heights, the infamous gerrymander tail of Marine Parade GRC
(c) MacPherson, where Matthias Yao might be stepping down. It is an SMC created for Yao-Chee showdown in 1997, might be brought back in Marine Parade.
many boundaries to change ...
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