How to win a G.R.C. in 2006 [Part II]

As promised, here is the 2nd part of my analysis on how the opposition, namely the Worker's Party (WP), can wrest a Group Representation Constituency from the People's Action Party (PAP) in the up and coming General Elections, which will mostly likely be held in 2006 (dates for us to guess).

To recap, I summarised that previously I written about 2 crucial factors may determine whether the WP can win the Aljunied GRC from the PAP - the political atmosphere during the elections; and the qualities of the candidates. In this blog, I shall elaborate further on the first factor only.


(a) The Political Atmosphere

If the General Elections were to be held now, my bet is on the PAP losing much ground support from their previous resounding wins (over 75% approval rate in the contested wards) in 2001. The political atmosphere is just not right at the moment. The people, minus the silent civil servants, minus the active unionist, is grumbling.

Here are some hot topics that, in my opinion, will not fade away so fast:


(i) The NKF saga threw out light about the lack of transparencies in the charitial organisation, which was so used to winning lawsuits before. The topic to provoke here is whether is there any transparencies in whatever agencies(I shall not named them) the people can think of?

(ii) Mr Andrew Kuan stirred the honests' nest with his unanticipated attempt to be eligible for the Presidental Elections. The topic here is about the dissappointment of the general public on the high-handed treatment of the government in slamming the poor soul. Also of dissappointment is the lack of contest.

(iii) The topic on integrated resorts and their casinos (IR for short) is another potential landmine topic waiting for someone to step on and let it explodes.

(iv) The LTA and their 1-month eviction notice on property owners of FREEHOLD land sitting on top or nearby a construction site of the MRT line goes to show how dissrespectful and shabbly the oridinary citizens have been treated by government agencies.

(v) More to come...


Alas, the General Elections (GE), in my opinion, will not be held till Mar-2006! The government will be very "kind" to allow the general public the longest possible time for them to forget the controversies. Generally the elections are held over school holiday so that the school facilities can be used as voting centres and centralised counting centres. The term of the current Parliament ends on Jan-2007. Hence, this works out to the possibilities of the General Elections being held by Dec-05, Mar-06, Jun-06, Sep-06 or Dec-06. Let play the guessing game!

Dec-2006 is too close to the end of the term. If unforseen events like NKF-like saga or economic downturn or retrenchment happen during or close to that period, there is no escape for the PAP. Whacked they will be! I rate the chance of the GE occurring in this period - 10%.

Dec-2005 is too close to the decision on the selections of IR developers. The topic here is how much jobs will be created and how much of these jobs will go to Singaporean! Unless, the government, which will obviously has the 1st hand information from the bids submitted for the IR, is very confident that the IR proposals they are going to lay out for the general public consumption and digestion will be positive. That gives them the possibility to held the General Elections then. Otherwise, the memories of the public will still be fresh on the controversies. I rate the chance of the GE occurring in this period - 25%.

Between Jun-2006 and Sep-2006, there is nothing much to choose from - no preference. However, Sep-2006 is too close to the end of the terms, so preference is for Jun-2006, my guess. I rate the chance of the GE occurring in this period - 30% (for Sep-2006) and 50% (for Jun-2006). If today is May-2006, then the chance for a Jun-2006 GE is 85%.

As for Mar-2006 (as compared to Jun-2006), the downside is that the dates the government can select is limited (narrowed down to the 1-week school holiday in that month). Of important in this period is the presentation of the Singapore Budget 2006 by the Finance Minister (also the Prime Minister lah!). Singapore financial year starts from April and ends in March every year. So the budget for the financial year 2006/07 must be generally be approved by that month. Why then have the GE in the same month (mostly probably after the Budget '06)?

Generally, my guess is that in every year that has a GE in the same year, there are plentiful of goodies and candies that our "gracious" government will start to hand out to each and every citizens. Of course to be fair to them, our government DO hand out goodies in other years. But nothing beats the visibilities of the imperative goodies in election year!

Our fiscal budget has been balanced (+ surplus) since the last Budget '05. With the non-impeded growth that we are enjoying now (before the forecoming periods of decline due to oil, terrorism and uncertainties in Iraq), the government financial health is indeed very healthy. And the hand-outs for next year budget will come from these surpluses - expect it to be good.

Back to the GE topic, with such goodies given out, the ever-dominant PAP is on the roll. What better times to have an GE than just after the budget parliamentary sessions? Therefore, my predictions will be that the General Elections will most likely be held in March 2006, subjected to changes depending on the political atmosphere at that time! The greatest hint will be when the government presents the Budget '06 in Feb-2006.

Wait for my next blog on my analysis on the who I guess will be the candidates for the PAP and what sort of candidates the WP should counter with.