Clear ball prediction of General Elections in 2010?

With the impeding changes to the political landscape from 2009 onwards in Singapore, we are told to expect these:

(a) At least 9 opposition MPs (including NCMPs)
(b) Mean GRC size will be reduced from 5.4 (in 2006) to no more than 5 (for coming election)
(c) Increase of single-ward seats (SMC) from 8 to 12


Let's look at some analysis:

(1) Does the PAP really want more opposition MPs?
My answer would be a "no-no", without a doubt! What they want is more NCMPs so that they (opposition) get to blah whatever they want in parliament, and when it came down to the crucial event - that is.... VOTING...... only the MPs get to vote. Every issue will have unanimous decision, since party whip is always dangling out there, like it or not.

(2) Chiam See Tong declaration of wanting to contest a GRC in coming election
The threat of losing a GRC for the first time is real and would be very damaging to the reputation of PAP (if that happens). Henceforth, the likely topic of the day (during the election campaign) will be on focused on the health and ability of CST to continue serving the public. That's the exit strategy for the PAP, and in fact, is the only strategy!

(3) Will Lee Kuan Yew last the whole of the next term, given his elderly age?
This very issue means that the anchor person of Tanjong Pagar must come from some other GRC and take over when the old man is no more. None of the current crop in Tanjong Pagar, if I may say so, is fit to take over.

(4) The economy is in deflationary stage
Election must be held by Apr 2011. Can the government wait this long, given that Singapore's economy recover is now beyond their control. Whichever fiscal policy or monetary policy they apply will be useless against the largeness of the deflated macro-economics of the consuming world. Hence, only 2 things matter:
-- (a) Will there be more retrenchment?
-- (b) Is the government forcasts for 2010 going to be worst-off than 2009?

My take, is that both are true. Henceforth, the only choice for the government now is to hold the elections early, as early as possible.


Let's do some crystal-ball projections. I have my takes:

(1) Elections can only be held during the school holidays, as some of the school premises are used for election purposes. Election windows will come only in Mar, Jun, Sep, Nov/Dec. Since, I bet the government is expecting the economy to be worst in 2010; A-N-D that there will be more high-profile, large-scale retrenchment, elections therefore can only be held this year (2009) before these 2 events occurred. With the setting up of the Election Commission again, this means that the elections is likely to be scheduled for SEP-2009! That's my prediction!

(2) Currently there are 5 6-man GRCs, and 9 5-man GRCs for an overal average of 5.35-man per GRC. To achieve an average of not more than 5-man per GRC, this is what I expected:

--> Pre-prediction analysis #A: Singapore's population has grown since 2006, hence from 84 seats, we can expect 86 seats (gut feeling) this time round
---> Pre-prediction analysis #B: With 12 SMC, that will leave 74 seats for the GRCs. To achieve no more than 5-man average, there should be 15 GRCs (an increase of 1 GRC aka giving back the old Cheng San GRC or some can say giving back the old Enuos GRC). But not true either, since the population "increase" come from the Sembawang GRC and the Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC side (both are strong PAP GRCs).

6-man GRC:
--- Sembawang GRC - likely to remain a 6-man GRC and yet be able to spin-off 2 SMCs (due to the increase in population at Sembawang and Woodlands new towns)
--- Ang Mo Kio GRC - remain as a 6-man GRC (no change expected)
--- Marine Parage GRC - remain as a 6-man GRC (likely to give 1 ward to Aljunied GRC and abosrb 1 ward from Jalan Besar GRC)

5-man GRC:
--- West Coast GRC - remain as a 5-man GRC (no change expected)
--- Hong Kah GRC - remain as a 5-man GRC (no change expected)
--- Jurong GRC - remain as a 5-man GRC (no change expected)
--- Holland-Bukit Timah - remain as a 5-man GRC (no change expected)
--- Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC - remain as a 5-man GRC (no change expected)
--- Tanjong-Pagar GRC - might be reduced to 5-man GRC and spin-off Chinatown as the SMC
--- East Coast GRC - remain as a 5-man GRC (no change expected)
--- Tampines GRC - remain as a 5-man GRC (no change expected)
--- Aljunied GRC - remain as a 5-man GRC but likely to give up 1 ward to Punggol-Sengkang GRC and absorb 1 ward from Marine Parade GRC (Balestier Height SMC maybe)

4-man GRC:
--- Pasir Ris GRC - likely to split from the current Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC (due to population increase in Punggol)
--- Punggol-Sengkang GRC - likely to split from the current Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC and absorb 1 ward of the current Aljunied GRC (due to its strong opposition support)
--- Jalan Besar GRC - impeding Chiam See Tong contest in this ward means likely to give up 1 ward to Marine Parade GRC, abosorb some parts of Tanjong Pagar GRC and still be able to spin-off another SMC. Rationale is simple, if there is a predicted loss due to CST effect, let it be a 4-man GRC and not a 5-man GRC. And to prevent that loss, give up a weak ward to Marine Parade GRC, split off another weak SMC, and absorb parts of the strong Tanjong Pagar GRC to tilt the balance more into PAP favour.