The case of the nearly win in GRC

Group Representative Constituencies (GRC) was first used in the 1988 elections. It put premium on a team (started from a team of 3 candidates in 1988 to team of 6 candidates in 2001). The gambit is high as a loss of a GRC by PAP can be devastating to their public relations.

Ever since 1988, there is always 1 GRC that ended up the hot topic and the most widely-discussed contest of the whole elections. In 1988, it was Enuos GRC (3-man team) with the PAP ended wining only 50.89% of the vote, a close contest indeed. The target of the day? It was zoomed at Francis Seow, a ex-long-time friend of the you-know-who family, who joined the opposition. The topic? His suspected backers behind his back - American CIA. Ended up, you find Francis Seow now in Australia.

In 1991, Enuos GRC became a 4-man GRC. Did PAP learned a lesson from the 1988 elections? No! The GRC was retained, amid an increase of premium. In the end, they were found fighting hard, very hard again in this GRC. A GRC with a minister, the late Dr Tay Eng Soon, struggling for thier survival? What a scene! In the end, they found 1 target. The target of the day? It was Mohamed Jufrie Mahmood, the minority candidate of the WP. The topic? It was his so-called Malay fiery speeches (read as anti-Chinese). And the result - PAP won 52.38%. An epic win? How can that be when you have a minister in the team and you managed to direct the majority of the voters not to vote for the opposition (read as not necessarily vote for you).

In 1997, the government having to sweat it out for the past 2 elections in their weakest GRC, which by 1997 has lost their anchor man (the late Dr Tay), decided to dis-assemble Enuos GRC and distribted the individual wards to other GRC. However, 天算不如人算, ended up the late J.B. Jeyaretnam (the powerful 黑马 and respected by the public) contested Cheng San GRC in a 5-man team. All the big guns of PAP started to target 1 person. And the target? The poor Tang Liang Hong. The topic? His alleged Chinese chauvinist view. Somehow one wonder how much resources did the PAP used to dig up an old interview of TLH by the media done more than 5 years ago? That interview expressed his seemingly Chinese chauvinist views. In the end, the show was tight. Like what TLH said in one of the rallies, 静山 became 火山. Explosive, aggressive, police reports, law suits, etc. Everything that you can name, they throw into the boxing ring. The conclusion? PAP won only 54.82%! And the target man? Ran away to Australia, perhaps to have BBQ party with Francis Seow (later they were joined by the tudung-issue Malay guy from the opposition PKMS and the ex-PR Malaysian pilot of SIA who got his PR revoked for leading a revolt of highly-educated pilots against SIA).

In 2001 election, the elections was held on 3rd Nov 2001, a mere 2 months after 9/11 events. Every Singaporean was so scared of terrorists that they voted for the PAP. Landslide win for them! Anyway, learning from the lessons of Enuos GRC, Cheng San GRC, after all the hoo-hah in 1997, no longer exist in 2001 election. The strongest opposition team was supposed to contest in Aljunied GRC, but a small error of not writing the GRC name on the nomination forms disqualified the whole team, PAP won by walk-over! No contest, nothing worth discussing.

In 2006 election, as expected, Aljunied GRC was the hot cakes. No surprise, expect the reaction of the PAP. Why is that so? The WP has elected their party chairman, Sylvia Lim, in the previous year. Against such a strong opposition candidate and who is a female, it was very surprising that a reshuffle of the GRC wards meant that there were 2 women candidates in the PAP line-up just to compete against the single WP lady! They are Cynthia Phua (the incumbent in Aljunied GRC) and Lim Hwee Hua (the highest-ranked female in the whole of government!). In other words, PAP is telling all the female voters of Aljunied GRC, that if you vote for the opposition, you will lose your (female) voice in the government (having voted out the top-ranked female voice). A subtle end-game gambit of hostage-bartering. I read it as in 2001 election, they have put in a useless Cynthia Phua just to fill the space for a candidate and a female slot. For now they need to use another more stronger Lim Hwee Hua to deal with the chairlady of WP! And of course, we have the now self-exiled James Gomez and his forgetfulness. And of course, as history showed, the PAP won 56.09%.

In the coming election, what can we expect? More elected opposition candidates? You can bet the PAP only wanted more non-constituency MPs, not elected opposition MPs! That mean to say, Aljunied GRC (while not likely to get dis-assembled) is likely to undergo some changes. However, this time round, there are 2 GRCs likely to be in hot-news! The other, likely to be Jalan Besar GRC, with the impeding contest of Chiam See Tong leading a team, instead of staying put in his Potong Pasir SMC. Now, all the big guns (of PAP) have to split their time to run here (Jalan Besar) and there (Aljunied). Topics of the day? The health of Chiam See Tong after his recovery of his stroke (for Jalan Besar GRC). The other topic (for Aljunied GRC)? I have yet to find out. No, wrong, I am not so smart until I can predict what the PAP will use! One wonder if the old man's heart can take the pressure of running here and there himself, while discussing about the health of a younger opposition candidate. What irony!

One thing for sure - we will see more fireworks and fanfare! Sit back, sit tight, pop your chips, enjoy the show!

Clear ball prediction of General Elections in 2010?

With the impeding changes to the political landscape from 2009 onwards in Singapore, we are told to expect these:

(a) At least 9 opposition MPs (including NCMPs)
(b) Mean GRC size will be reduced from 5.4 (in 2006) to no more than 5 (for coming election)
(c) Increase of single-ward seats (SMC) from 8 to 12


Let's look at some analysis:

(1) Does the PAP really want more opposition MPs?
My answer would be a "no-no", without a doubt! What they want is more NCMPs so that they (opposition) get to blah whatever they want in parliament, and when it came down to the crucial event - that is.... VOTING...... only the MPs get to vote. Every issue will have unanimous decision, since party whip is always dangling out there, like it or not.

(2) Chiam See Tong declaration of wanting to contest a GRC in coming election
The threat of losing a GRC for the first time is real and would be very damaging to the reputation of PAP (if that happens). Henceforth, the likely topic of the day (during the election campaign) will be on focused on the health and ability of CST to continue serving the public. That's the exit strategy for the PAP, and in fact, is the only strategy!

(3) Will Lee Kuan Yew last the whole of the next term, given his elderly age?
This very issue means that the anchor person of Tanjong Pagar must come from some other GRC and take over when the old man is no more. None of the current crop in Tanjong Pagar, if I may say so, is fit to take over.

(4) The economy is in deflationary stage
Election must be held by Apr 2011. Can the government wait this long, given that Singapore's economy recover is now beyond their control. Whichever fiscal policy or monetary policy they apply will be useless against the largeness of the deflated macro-economics of the consuming world. Hence, only 2 things matter:
-- (a) Will there be more retrenchment?
-- (b) Is the government forcasts for 2010 going to be worst-off than 2009?

My take, is that both are true. Henceforth, the only choice for the government now is to hold the elections early, as early as possible.


Let's do some crystal-ball projections. I have my takes:

(1) Elections can only be held during the school holidays, as some of the school premises are used for election purposes. Election windows will come only in Mar, Jun, Sep, Nov/Dec. Since, I bet the government is expecting the economy to be worst in 2010; A-N-D that there will be more high-profile, large-scale retrenchment, elections therefore can only be held this year (2009) before these 2 events occurred. With the setting up of the Election Commission again, this means that the elections is likely to be scheduled for SEP-2009! That's my prediction!

(2) Currently there are 5 6-man GRCs, and 9 5-man GRCs for an overal average of 5.35-man per GRC. To achieve an average of not more than 5-man per GRC, this is what I expected:

--> Pre-prediction analysis #A: Singapore's population has grown since 2006, hence from 84 seats, we can expect 86 seats (gut feeling) this time round
---> Pre-prediction analysis #B: With 12 SMC, that will leave 74 seats for the GRCs. To achieve no more than 5-man average, there should be 15 GRCs (an increase of 1 GRC aka giving back the old Cheng San GRC or some can say giving back the old Enuos GRC). But not true either, since the population "increase" come from the Sembawang GRC and the Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC side (both are strong PAP GRCs).

6-man GRC:
--- Sembawang GRC - likely to remain a 6-man GRC and yet be able to spin-off 2 SMCs (due to the increase in population at Sembawang and Woodlands new towns)
--- Ang Mo Kio GRC - remain as a 6-man GRC (no change expected)
--- Marine Parage GRC - remain as a 6-man GRC (likely to give 1 ward to Aljunied GRC and abosrb 1 ward from Jalan Besar GRC)

5-man GRC:
--- West Coast GRC - remain as a 5-man GRC (no change expected)
--- Hong Kah GRC - remain as a 5-man GRC (no change expected)
--- Jurong GRC - remain as a 5-man GRC (no change expected)
--- Holland-Bukit Timah - remain as a 5-man GRC (no change expected)
--- Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC - remain as a 5-man GRC (no change expected)
--- Tanjong-Pagar GRC - might be reduced to 5-man GRC and spin-off Chinatown as the SMC
--- East Coast GRC - remain as a 5-man GRC (no change expected)
--- Tampines GRC - remain as a 5-man GRC (no change expected)
--- Aljunied GRC - remain as a 5-man GRC but likely to give up 1 ward to Punggol-Sengkang GRC and absorb 1 ward from Marine Parade GRC (Balestier Height SMC maybe)

4-man GRC:
--- Pasir Ris GRC - likely to split from the current Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC (due to population increase in Punggol)
--- Punggol-Sengkang GRC - likely to split from the current Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC and absorb 1 ward of the current Aljunied GRC (due to its strong opposition support)
--- Jalan Besar GRC - impeding Chiam See Tong contest in this ward means likely to give up 1 ward to Marine Parade GRC, abosorb some parts of Tanjong Pagar GRC and still be able to spin-off another SMC. Rationale is simple, if there is a predicted loss due to CST effect, let it be a 4-man GRC and not a 5-man GRC. And to prevent that loss, give up a weak ward to Marine Parade GRC, split off another weak SMC, and absorb parts of the strong Tanjong Pagar GRC to tilt the balance more into PAP favour.